Christopher S. Rugaber
AP Economics Writer
Washington (AP) — The number of newly laid-off workers filing initial claims for jobless benefits last week fell to the lowest level since early January, largely due to changes in the timing of auto industry layoffs.
Continuing claims, meanwhile, unexpectedly increased to a record high. While layoffs are slowing, jobs remain scarce and the unemployment rate is rising, which some economists worry could weaken or delay a recovery. The unemployment rate rose to 9.5 percent last month and is expected to top 10 percent by the end of this year.
Separately, many retail chains reported disappointing June sales, as consumers are saving more and spending less.
New claims for unemployment insurance plummeted by 52,000 to a seasonally adjusted 565,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. That’s significantly below analysts’ expectations of 605,000 for the week ending July 4, according to Thomson Reuters. The last time new claims were below 600,000 was the week of Jan. 24.
“This is not as positive as it looks,” Jennifer Lee, an economist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a note to clients. “There are a number of special factors at play here, including the fact that the holiday-shortened week skewed the data.”
The drop resulted partly from technical factors, according to a Labor Department analyst. Auto layoffs that normally take place in early July, as factories are retooled to build the next year’s models, occurred in the spring instead as General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC implemented sweeping restructuring plans.
The retail weakness cut across all sectors but hit mall-based clothing stores particularly hard. Companies also are cutting wages and jobs, limiting Americans’ buying power.
Continuing jobless claims jumped 159,000 to 6.88 million, the highest on records dating from 1967. Analysts had expected 6.71 million continuing claims.
Economists are closely watching the level of first-time claims for signs the economy will recover in the second half of this year, as many predict.
But the change in the timing of auto layoffs likely will muddy the picture for several weeks, the Labor Department analyst said.
Consumers and businesses have cut back on spending in response to the bursting of the housing bubble and the financial crisis, sending the economy into the longest recession since World War II.
The Labor Department reported last week that employers cut 467,000 jobs in June, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.5 percent, the highest in 25 years.
The payroll cuts last month were greater than analysts expected, renewing concern that jobs will remain scarce even if the economy ekes out growth later this year.
Some employers are still shedding jobs. Gannett Co. Inc., which publishes USA Today and 85 other daily newspapers, reported last week it will eliminate about 1,400 jobs, or 3 percent of its work force.
Among the states, New Jersey reported the largest increase in initial claims — 7,876 — which it attributed to seasonal layoffs related to school closings and manufacturing job cuts. The next largest increases were reported by Massachusetts, Kansas, Kentucky and New York. The state data lags initial claims by one week.
Florida reported the largest decrease — 12,493 — which it attributed to fewer layoffs in the construction, manufacturing and agriculture industries. Illinois, Pennsylvania, California and Tennessee reported the next largest drops.