Stalemate in Congress might not hurt economy

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By Paul Wiseman
AP Economics Writer

Washington — The Republicans’ sweeping gains in Tuesday’s elections hardly guarantee they can enact their own prescriptions for the ailing economy.

Despite their capture of the House and near-takeover of the Senate, Republicans will still lack the votes to ram through their agenda of new tax and spending cuts and looser regulation. Democrats, with their own economic ideas, will likely fight them to a draw.

Yet it may not matter. On its own, the economy is showing slow but steady improvement. Consumers and businesses are spending a bit more. Some companies are hiring. And most economists said they expect those gains to continue.

For Democrats and Republicans, the inability to do much for the next two years may not be such a bad policy for the economy.

According to economists, none of the ideas proposed in the campaign — by either party — would make a big dent in the nation’s 9.6 percent unemployment rate or ramp up consumer spending.

“If there were a silver bullet to be shot at this economy, it would have been shot already,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial.

The Republicans’ victories do stand to affect Americans’ personal finances. The highest-earning Americans, for example, are more likely to keep tax cuts enacted under President George W. Bush.

Businesses might get some relief from government regulation. The long-term unemployed are likely to lose their jobless benefits sometime next year. Financially ailing state and local governments can probably abandon hope for more help from Washington.

A likely two-year standoff between the White House and fired-up congressional Republicans shouldn’t get in the way of a gradually improving economy, analysts said.

“If the economy sticks to the script, (gridlock) is not a major problem,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

The danger, Zandi said, is if the economy takes a turn for the worse.

“If the economy doesn’t cooperate and starts to backtrack, then this will become a problem,” he said. “Policymakers will not be able to respond, and they’ll need to.”

Here’s what the Republicans’ gains likely mean for:

• Jobs: Republicans have resisted spending more federal money to try to create more jobs. Chi Lo, who runs HFT Investment Management in Hong Kong, said the economy could use some federal spending, so he sees the Republican gains as “negative in the short term.” The fading effects of the Obama stimulus programs are expected to add 1 percentage point to economic growth in 2011 and nothing in 2012, according to Bank of America. The GOP also is likely to stop extending emergency jobless benefits to the long-term unemployed — after the Democratic-led Congress extended those benefits seven times since July 2008. The next cutoff in unemployment benefits comes Nov. 30.

• Taxes: Tax cuts enacted under President George W. Bush are scheduled to expire Dec. 31. Obama wants to extend the tax cuts only for households earning less than $250,000 a year. The Republicans want to extend them to everyone, regardless of income. Analysts said Obama, stung by his party’s defeat at the polls, will back down and agree to a compromise. The two parties might also reach a deal to lower corporate tax rates in exchange for fewer loopholes in the tax code.

• Regulation: The stalemate in Congress is likely to move the policy battlefield from Capitol Hill to government regulatory agencies. But the Republicans’ gains Tuesday mean they will control the congressional committees that oversee — and pay for — federal agencies; and they are expected to pressure regulators to back off business. Susan Eckerly of the National Federal of Independent Business said regulatory relief will encourage businesses to hire and expand, helping boost the economy.

• Trade: Obama may find some Republican allies as he negotiates free trade treaties with South Korea, Colombia and Panama. But many Republicans want to join Democrats and punish China. They accuse Beijing of manipulating its currency and giving Chinese exporters an unfair price edge in world markets. That raises the risk of a U.S.-China trade war.