Incumbent retirements complicate Assembly Republicans’ quest to maintain majority

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By WisPolitics-State Affairs

The 99-member Assembly has been viewed as the GOP’s best bet this fall. Those odds just got a little worse with the retirements of Republican Reps. Jessie Rodriguez and Dean Kaufert.

Rodriguez, R-Oak Creek, is passing on a reelection bid after nearly 13 years in the Assembly, saying life in public office has taken her away from her family and she wants to put more time into them. She was viewed as a reluctant candidate in 2024, when GOP leaders were pressuring incumbents to stick around under the new maps that were put into place.

Kaufert, R-Neenah, earlier announced he was hanging it up after making a comeback and helping Assembly Speaker Robin Vos and Republicans hold onto the majority in 2024 under the new maps. Kaufert was a longtime Assembly member who left to become mayor of Neenah then was convinced to try for the Assembly again.

They were both part of Vos’ “majority makers,” five members who won seats even as Kamala Harris took more votes than Donald Trump in their districts.

Kaufert has the toughest seat for Republicans to defend; Trump took 47.8% of the two-party vote in the Neenah-Menasha district.

Rodriguez’s seat in Milwaukee’s southern suburbs was marginally better with Trump taking 47.9% there. But while Kaufert won by 364 votes two years ago, Rodriguez had a relatively easy time with her reelection, winning with 51.3% of the vote.

While Kaufert and Rodriguez are out, Assembly Republicans still have their other three Harris district members seeking reelection: Bob Donovan in Greenfield, Ben Franklin in De Pere and Todd Novak in Dodgeville.

Operatives say there’s still a path to 50 seats even with the departures of Kaufert and Rodriguez. But it just got narrower, insiders say.

Activist Dylan Pfaffenbach, who’s worked part-time as a legislative aide and will be a senior this fall at Carroll University, is the first Republican to jump into the race for Rodriguez’s seat, and it remains to be seen how heavily the GOP will invest in the district without the incumbent running.

Same goes for Kaufert’s seat.

If Republicans don’t put up as spirited of an effort there, it would allow Dems to put more money into the other three Republicans in Harris seats, as well as some incumbents in GOP-leaning seats like Pat Snyder in Weston, Clint Moses in Menominee and Shannon Zimmerman in River Falls.

Recent polling done for the liberal group A Better Wisconsin Together suggests there are openings in those reach seats, as well as the Harris districts.

The group shared with WisPolitics polling conducted by the Dem firm Public Policy Polling in the Rodriguez, Novak, Zimmerman, Donovan and Snyder seats.

In all five, Trump’s favorability rating was upside down by double digits, including 38-58 in Novak’s seat. Each poll was conducted before Rodriguez’s announcement that she wouldn’t seek another term. In her district, a generic Dem was backed by 48% of registered voters, while 40% supported Rodriguez.

In Zimmerman’s, it was 45-43 for the generic Dem over the incumbent. In Novak’s, 46-40 for the generic Dem. In Donovan’s, 46-41 for the generic Dem. And in Snyder’s it was 44-38 for the generic Dem.

Insiders note two caveats: races aren’t run with generic candidates, and polling in legislative districts is notoriously difficult.

Still, the results provide a snapshot of where the races begin and underscore Trump’s drag on the GOP brand six months out from the election.

The Capitol Report, produced by WisPolitics.com — a nonpartisan, Madison-based news service that specializes in coverage of government and politics — provides a weekly analysis of issues being debated in Wisconsin state government. For more go to www.wispolitics.com.